Democrats' big win clouds the permitting picture
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Summary
Democrats' blowout win further complicates the fraught path to passing a permitting deal in the lame duck. Why it matters: Cutting hurdles for projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors. But critics argue the Senate plan unacceptably weakens environmental protections and tribal input. The big picture: Dems' looming control of Congress "worsens the outlook" for the bill this year, the advisory firm Capstone said in a note. The firm sees Democrats as "further emboldened" to punt the bill into 2027. President "Trump is likely to put pressure on House Republicans to support the package, but with his standing diminished in the wake of the midterms, his political capital may be limited," it states. Analysts with Jefferies also see reduced odds of lame duck support for a package that makes it easier to build gas pipelines. Yes, but: The bipartisan bill's Democratic co-authors argued on Wednesday that now remains the time, with Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) calling it a "bird in the hand" and saying "we'd be fools not to take it." "Democrats ran and won on affordability, and this bill lowers costs for families and will allow us to start delivering on our election promises," he said in a statement. State of play: Rapidan Energy Group now sees a 20%-25% chance in the lame duck, down from 30% pre-election. Yet Rapidan's rather bullish on a permitting deal with Trump in 2027-2028. That challenges the view of many bill supporters who see a fleeting opening right now. Rapidan's logic: Trump struck first-term deals with Dems on the debt limit, government funding and more — at times against the will of GOP congressional leaders. "Democrats need only five or six Republican votes to reach 60 on a bill Republicans helped write, and Trump's first-term precedent ... suggests he may be willing to make deals with Democrats to reduce the veto risk," their note states. Catch up quick: TD Cowen analysts quickly dropped their assessment of lame duck passage from 40% to 25%, while the firm ClearView Energy Partners also argues that Dems' bicameral win could weaken the prospects. What they're saying: American Clean Power Association head Jason Grumet told reporters on Wednesday the bill reflects voters' interest in cheaper energy. "I think that the understanding in Congress is that this is a really unique opportunity, and if you don't move forward in the next three or four weeks, it's hard to imagine a bipartisan effort over the next couple of years," said Grumet, whose group represents renewables, storage and transmission companies. The other side: Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who is likely to helm the Natural Resources Committee, is arguing that Democrats should show that the days of Trump's "supplicant Senate" are over. Huffman, who wants to wait until next year, said Dems should demand hearings and amendments on the bill he currently opposes. The bottom line: The White House is still pushing for lame duck action, but did not directly say whether it would be open to a deal on an altered bill next year. "The White House supports the bipartisan deal worked out between Republicans and Democrats and agrees that the time to get permitting reform done is now," a White House official said. Amy Harder contributed reporting. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.
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