Robust Ranking of Port Impacts from Impending Tropical Cyclones: A Two-Stage Recommendation System
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Summary
arXiv:2611.07296v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When a tropical cyclone (TC) threatens several ports, preparedness planning depends on anticipating which ports are likely to be affected and where disruptions may last longest. Limited historical observations at individual ports and uncertainty in landfall location make these relative impacts difficult to estimate. We use a two-stage recommendation framework that first selects candidate ports based on their proximity to the expected landfall location and then ranks them by their estimated number of impact days. Using AIS-derived impact days for 37 ports and 31 TCs in the Gulf of Mexico study region, we compare three ways of representing port--cyclone interactions: pairwise feature interactions, tree-based feature combinations, and explicit feature crosses combined with learned embeddings. In tests on Hurricanes Nicole and Ian, the retrieval stage consistently identifies all observed affected ports under landfall uncertainty. Among the ranking models, Wide & Deep Learning achieves the closest agreement with the observed port rankings. Its mean ranking agreement exceeds that of the distance-based baseline by 85.5% for Nicole and 55.5% for Ian and is less sensitive to uncertainty in the landfall location. These rankings could help port authorities prioritize post-cyclone inspections and allocate recovery resources across ports threatened by the same event.
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