Low unemployment, but job worries persist
· axios.com · popularity 33/100 · 0 similar stories today · Economy & Markets (Money, Markets & Investing)
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Summary
Americans have conflicting views of the job market : They are more worried about unemployment rising nationwide, even as they are more confident that they could find another job if they lost their own. Driving the news: The perceived probability that unemployment will rise over the next year climbed to 45.3% in October, the highest since April 2020, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations — an increase driven by those without a college degree. Yes, but: The perceived probability of finding another job if one lost their current position rose to 46.5%, the highest in about a year. Americans' perceived probability of losing their jobs over the next year also edged higher, rising 0.4 percentage point, to 13.9%. State of play: The mixed outlook underscores an unusual feature of today's labor market — hiring is picking up and unemployment remains historically low, but finding work can still be a prolonged struggle. The backdrop: The October jobs report showed that employers added a surprisingly robust 165,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate has held in the narrow range of 4% to 4.2% for five consecutive months. But Friday's data also showed that 2 million Americans have been unemployed for at least six months, accounting for more than 25% of all unemployed workers. The average spell of unemployment climbed to 27.1 weeks in October, the longest since December 2021. (Excluding the pandemic, it's the highest reading since August 2016.) Of note: Ahead of the October Consumer Price Index report — out tomorrow — the New York Fed said that inflation expectations were unchanged last month at 3.9% over the next year, 3.3% over three years and 3% over five years.
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